The Gold Split - Week #26: Goals & Predictions
Week #26 (Jan 9): Goals & Predictions; AGDQ 2025; Super Mario Galaxy 2; Quake; Echoes of Wisdom; Simpsons; Event News; Fun Fact; New World Records: SMB 3, Spyro, Celeste 64, Crash Nitro Kart, Deus Ex
Happy Week #26!
Awesome Games Done Quick 2025, the largest speedrunning charity marathon of the year, is still going strong and I couldn’t come up with better entertainment for the start of the year. Each time it rekindles that passion for the hobby and makes me want to speedrun again myself. Go watch, enjoy and support the fight against cancer!
There will be a larger section about AGDQ 2025 in the Event News section, including many helpful links to enhance the experience (especially if you love stats!).
As promised at the bottom of this newsletter, if you choose to support The Gold Split with a paid subscription, I’m donating half of the revenue to a good cause. Thanks to your generosity I’ll be able to pass on $30 to the Prevent Cancer Foundation during AGDQ 2025. Thank you so much!
Up to Speed ⚡️
I encourage you to think about what happened recently in the communities you are a part of. If there are any stories, articles, glitches, events, or other topics I should cover, go ahead and submit them here or in the Gold Split Discord! 📨
Story of the Week ✨
2025 has just begun, and while I’m not a huge fan of New Year’s resolutions, I am a fan of trying to predict what might happen. My own 2025 predictions of Suigi being dethroned in at least one Super Mario 64 category and SummoningSalt releasing the 8-hour director’s cut of the Subway Surfers world record history documentary are destined to come true anyways, so I reached out to a few folks to get a broader spectrum of goals and what to look forward to in the new year.
And as a bonus, if we’re all still here at the end of 2025, we get to look back, reflect and gauge how well they did at setting these goals and predicting those outcomes.
Three predictions reached me for the Any% category of Super Mario Bros. The current record of 04:54.631 by Niftski has been set in September of 2023, but recent streams have shown that a new one might be just around the corner. Going into the final level, that run was tied with the tool-assisted speedrun (TAS). This is possible due to something called the frame rule. In short: outside of the final level, time can only be gained or lost in 21-frame intervals, because that is the rate at which the level completion is checked. Therefore, on some levels, a runner might lose a few frames but can still end up tied with the TAS.
Niftski themselves predict a 04:54.5xx or even 04:54.4xx by the end of the year, and SMB legend Kosmic also considers that a safe bet. But content creator Abyssoft goes a few steps further: their prediction is a complete tie with the TAS in 2025, which would be a 04:54.265. At that point and until new strategies are found, the best any other player could do is to break even.
This part was added after publishing:
Niftski has already done it! Less than 24 hours after this edition of The Gold Split went out, they reached a time of 04:54.565. This time is now only 0.3 seconds or 18 frames away from absolute perfection and being tied with the TAS. 🐐
In Super Mario 64, the predictions concern new records in the shorter categories. The momentum in 120 Star seems to have slowed and we might not see any progress there in 2025, but content creator Bismuth does anticipate new best times in 0 Star, 1 Star and 16 Star. Blindfolded speedrunner Bubzia agrees with the 16 Star prediction, despite or maybe because of the mystique around that record. Currently, Suigi is working on the 0 Star category, while Weegee and Slipperynip are targetting 16 Star.
Speaking of Bubzia, his personal goal for the new year does involve the 120 Star category. In May of 2022 he became the first person to finish it blindfolded with a time of 11:22:43. And in 2025, he wants to improve that time significantly and end the run in under ten hours. I was curious about what it will take to get there, and this is what he had to say:
It’s mostly going to be optimizing the longer and harder stars for consistency and speed. Mostly all the 100 coins stars and some of the really tricky ones like Wingcap Red Coins etc. I have improved as a player a ton over the last year with my 16 and 70 star grind, so lots of new optimizations might now be possible that I simply lacked skill before or even simply did not consider during routing and stuff. It will be lots of work, but it can definitely happen. 😄
Bismuth on the other hand has plans and predictions for Donkey Kong 64, specifically in the 101% category on Nintendo 64. In the second half of the year, he’ll aim to improve his time by at least 15 minutes to below 05:40:00. Just above on the leaderboard however he forecasts a potential three-way battle for the crown between Znernicus, Awhitmore and Auphonium, with Znernicus ultimately coming out on top with a time of at least 05:19:xx at the end of the year.
In the world of tool-assisted speedruns, TAS legend Tompa is modest and simply wants to continue TASing for as long as he’s motivated. His current project is Klonoa 2: Dream Champ Tournament, a platformer for the Game Boy Advance. Future projects are also already on the horizon, and potentially include The Legend of Zelda: Four Swords for the Nintendo DSi, Super Princess Peach on Nintendo DS, and Wario Land: Shake It! on the Wii.
EnglishBen has been speedrunning Grand Theft Auto: Vice City since 2017, but has fallen behind in his favourite category due to other projects and commitments. In 2025, he pledges to improve his time in Any% (No SSU) to avoid being relegated to the 2nd page of the leaderboards and at the very least remain firmly in the top 100. He also predicts more Chinese runners entering the game’s scene and challenging the top times. In 2024, three have already broken into the top 10 and quickly improved.
A very concrete goal comes from Sonic speedrunner and fast-talking scotsman Argick. He aims to get at least one new top 10 time in a different Sonic game every month. Hopefully we’ll see twelve of them on the scoresheet at the end of the year. It’s a good thing there are 116 different Sonic games on speedrun.com to choose from.
Lumilaura and Dayoman both want to work on their times in Spyro the Dragon 120%. While the former’s goal is to reach at least a 1:25:xx before they branch out into other speedgames, Dayoman is locking in and embracing the grind to finish the year with a time below 1:20:00. I’m rooting for both of you!
In Super Metroid Any%, Kosmic is certain that there will be a new record, and possibly by somebody who has never held it before. In the last ten years, only three people have been at the top: zoast, Behemoth87 and Oatsngoats, the current record holder. Now, at the beginning of 2025, Drewski_i and ShinyZeni are equally close to reaching for the crown. It’ll be an exciting leaderboard to follow!
Anorakkis can see the three hour barrier in The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess Any% on the Wii fall in 2025, even if it might take a mighty run to reach it. And with three tool-assisted speedruns for the game in the works and one for The Wind Waker just released, it might be a really good year for 3D Zelda TASing.
Beyond the games, joey, who runs therun.gg is working on the website becoming a front page for all of speedrunning. His aim is to turn it into a hub and a place where one goes to watch streams, get the news, find out about new records or personal bests, see upcoming events, participate in races and tournaments and much more. And maybe, just maybe, he’ll pick up a speedrun again after nine years.
And last but certainly not least, NaomiiiPlays predicts that charity marathons within the speedrunning scene will manage to raise more for a good cause than in previous years. She noticed a downturn in recent years and hopes that this year will mark a positive change. Currently, AGDQ 2025 is on a good trajectory to improve on last year’s donation total.
What are yours?
Did these inspire you? Do you have any goals or predictions for 2025?
It might be fun to gather as many as we can now and then look back at them at the end of they year. For this purpose, I created a quick and basic form to gather your speedrunning-related goals and predictions for 2025:
Feel free to submit as many as you like, you may remain anonymous. We'll put all of them into a vault at the end of January 2025 and open it at the end of the year. Have a good one!
Up to Speed ⚡️
⏱️ Super Mario Galaxy 2: Skipping the prologue is now possible (2-minute read)
The new skip completely evades Bowser’s prologue dialogue and will save around 40 seconds at the very beginning of every run. An explanation and a video are included in the post.
📚 Quake players explain their latest segmented run (3-hour 10-minute video)
Last week I reported on Quake Done Quickest 2, the latest segmented run project by the Quake community. In this marathon of a video, the players who performed the run discuss the results level by level and go into detail about the plans, the execution as well as advanced techniques. They use console commands to show hitboxes and change the camera to help viewers understand the precision required to achieve the best possible times for each level.
💰 Speedrun.com Plants vs. Zombies Challenge Results (Verification Pending)
TheLoneBanana0 - $250
Bulbasaur - $150
Guestwith9 - $100
🌟 The 1545 has been completed as a race for the first time (3-minute read)
The 1545 is a collect-a-thon of collect-a-thons, combining the 100% categories of multiple Crash Bandicoot, Spyro the Dragon, Super Mario and Rareware (Banjo-Kazooie, Banjo-Tooie & Donkey Kong 64) games into one. In July 2024, eight participants set out to complete the challenge while competing for the fastest time. Six of them finished the run and the fastest ended with a time of just over 55 hours and no sleep break.
🌀 Echoes of Wisdom: Tornando Chain Movement Tech Tutorial (15-minute video)
Speedrunner TGH walks you through how to chain boosts using a pot and the tornando enemy in The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom. During the demonstration, a discovery makes the trick even more consistent.
🔮 Echoes of Wisdom: Index Wrong Warp Tutorial (14-minute video)
In another video, TGH teaches the most important glitch for the Any% route in The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom: the Wrong Warp.
🎬 The Simpsons: Hit & Run leaderboards allow (some) cutscene skips (2-minute read)
By using a custom save file, players will be allowed to skip four lengthy cutscenes. A link to the save file is available in the news post.
Event News 📅
It’s all AGDQ this week! They’ll be live until Sunday, January 12th, benefitting the Prevent Cancer Foundation (PCF). If you haven’t managed to catch the livestream or somehow missed it, it’s never too late to join!
Here is a list of helpful links to get you started or enhance your viewing experience:
The Livestream on Twitch
The Schedule, calculated in your local timezone. It includes links to Youtube versions of each showcase that you missed or want to rewatch.
The Donation Page
GDQ Reminders, sending you a message on Discord when a marked showcase is coming up
The Prize Index. Donating the minimum amount to PCF during the timeframe listed on the page enters you in a raffle for the prize(s) you qualify for.
/u/ScopionSniper’s Quick Showcase Reviews
Statistics, Comparisons and more Statistics!
Shoutouts to /u/Thorebane on the speedrun subreddit for putting together this collection of tools and websites the the pinned AGDQ thread.
🏁 Finished
FINNRUNS Winter 2025 raised €3,040 for WWF Finland
⏱️ Running
Until January 12th: Awesome Games Done Quick 2025 (Schedule), benefitting the Prevent Cancer Foundation
🔜 Upcoming
Starts January 16th: Aquathon 2025 (Schedule), benefitting St. Jude Children's Research Hospital
This Week’s Top Times 🏆
🥇 First Place:
Super Mario Bros. 3 (Any%) in 00:03:00.000 by Kuto1k (He/Him)
Video • Twitch • YouTubeEnter the Gungeon (1 Character: Any%) in 00:06:18.000 by HollowGun (He/Him)
Video • Twitch • YouTubeSpyro Reignited Trilogy (PC) (Spyro the Dragon: Any% NBS) in 00:29:29.000 by toastedkat (Any/All)
Video • Twitch • YouTubeBONEWORKS (NewGame+) in 00:07:21.000 by Emil_
Video • Twitch • YouTubeCeleste 64 (Any%) in 00:00:14.666 by Ellaquin (They/Them)
Video • Twitch • YouTubeCrash Nitro Kart (Any%: Unrestricted) in 00:36:05.000 by C_Fred
Video • TwitchDeus Ex: Human Revolution (Any%) in 00:37:28.000 by coyotl
Video • Twitch • YouTubeRoblox: Pressure (The Hadal Blacksite: Solo, No Shop, Four Point Five Update) in 00:25:20.532 by annawesome (She/Her)
Video
🥈 Second Place:
Portal (Inbounds No SLA: PC, Legacy) in 00:11:20.355 by Hrvatskii (He/Him)
Video • YouTubeSuper Mario Bros. 3 (Any%) in 00:03:01.000 by CaptainPsyduck1 (He/Him)
VideoDark Souls (Any% No Wrong Warp) in 00:37:21.000 by Maarionete
Video • Twitch • YouTube
🥉 Third Place:
Super Mario Bros. (Any%: NTSC) in 00:04:54.863 by averge11 (He/Him, They/Them)
VideoCall of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (Recruit) in 01:33:01.670 by zeuse
VideoI Wanna Be The Boshy (Any% (No WW, DBO): Average) in 00:30:51.000 by AnsoWizard (He/Him)
Video • Twitch • YouTube
Fun Stat of the Week 📈
Every week, I run a set of horrible scripts to gather the previous week’s top times for the section prior to this one. For every game that has changed since the week before, a JSON file is created that includes links to all of its leaderboards.
Usually these end up being at most 1,500 KB in size and contain just a few thousand leaderboards. But last week I discovered somewhat of an outlier: a JSON file that’s just over 1 GB in size.
That game is Bomberman Land 3. It got added to speedrun.com on December 12th, 2024, and contains 2,661,126 non-miscellaneous full game leaderboards. That number is reached through all possible combinations of all the subcategories within the “Races” category.
The good news: with only five runs on all of the game’s leaderboards in total, most of those world records are up for grabs!
Bonus Fact
The miscellaneous categories for the game include one called Naked%. I checked the rules, but it is not quite clear whether they apply to the game or not…
Get naked as quickly as possible. (Time starts when you make your first move (after the director's lines) and ends when you get naked.)
Reddit Choice 🔝
The r/speedrun choice of the week is… u/ScopionSniper’s quick reviews for most of the runs at AGDQ 2025. Their goal is to watch as many showcases as possible and collect their thoughts on each in a brief paragraph. You can find them on their user page or in the pinned live event thread!
👋🏻 And that’s it for this week! See you next Thursday, January 16th 2025. 👋🏻
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Thanks for reading.